PULSE POINTS:
What Happened: A poll indicates Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) holds a significant lead in the Republican primary for New York governor and is narrowing the gap against incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY).
Who’s Involved: Rep. Elise Stefanik, Gov. Kathy Hochul, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R).
Where & When: New York, based on a survey conducted from April 22-24, 2025, by GrayHouse.
Key Quote: “I’ll make my decision solely based on whether or not I believe there’s a pathway to win,” said Rep. Lawler.
Impact: Stefanik’s strong favorability among Republicans and Independents could challenge Hochul’s position in the 2026 gubernatorial election.
IN FULL:
Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) could emerge as a formidable contender in the race for New York governor, according to a GrayHouse poll conducted in late April 2025. The poll surveyed 826 registered voters and found Stefanik with a commanding lead in the Republican primary, at 44 percent support, leaving Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) trailing far behind. Lawler received seven percent and Blakeman garnered five percent, with 44 percent of respondents undecided.
Stefanik, who has a net favorability of +47 among Republicans, also enjoys positive sentiments from Independents. This stands in contrast to Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is facing a net job approval rating of -18, with 55 percent of voters expressing disapproval. Hochul’s favorability has slightly improved recently, marking a shift from a previous Siena College poll.
The poll suggests that if the gubernatorial election were held today, Hochul would attract 46 percent of the vote against Stefanik’s 40 percent, while 14 percent remain undecided. Against Lawler, Hochul would lead with 45 percent to his 38 percent, and against Blakeman, she would maintain a lead of 44 percent to 36 percent.
Lawler plans to decide by June whether he will enter the race, focusing on his perceived ability to pose a viable challenge to Hochul. “I’ll make my decision solely based on whether or not I believe there’s a pathway to win,” Lawler commented during a recent media interview. He added: “Ultimately, we will make a decision on who can make the best case to New Yorkers and defeat Kathy Hochul. Because at the end of the day, that’s what it’s about.”
Support for change appears significant, with 61 percent of New Yorkers indicating it is time for a new leader. Meanwhile, only 18 percent expressed a willingness to re-elect Hochul, and just nine percent were firm in their choice to do so.
The National Pulse previously reported that Stefanik’s nomination for U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations was withdrawn after it became apparent that her congressional seat is critical to maintaining the Republican majority in the House.
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